February 27, 2009

How to Spot a Depression at 30,000 Feet

Throw out the economics books! Get rid of all the metrics! Forget what you've heard over the years about the Dirty Thirties and dustbowls and all that. This is 2009, and times are tough. How tough? Tough enough that Ryanair is considering charging passengers to use the loo. According to a report in The Globe and Mail , Ryanair boss Michael O'Leary thinks people should pay one British pound for a trip to the washroom, thus creating a new revenue stream. So many questions and concerns come to mind -- what of the passenger who boards without adequate change?

Now for the good news: this low-fare carrier tends to make short haul flights and they are known for very efficient landings!

Coffee with the Oracle: What lies ahead

by Diane Wilson

On Saturday morning, skip the gym, grab your coffee and settle down at the computer at 8 AM EST to read Warren Buffett's annual letter to shareholders. The letter, which forms part of Berkshire Hathawy's annual report, can be found at www.berkshirehathaway.com. Buffett has been knocked in recent months because Berkshire stock is down severely -- BRK.B shares now trade at $2,408, down drastically from their 52 week high of $4,700, while the A shares go for a measly $75,799, almost half of their 52 week high of $147,000.

Given that Berkshire is heavily exposed to insurance and other ills that plague the market, the stock price is understandable. It is important to know what Mr. Buffett believes of the future and how we arrived at this uncertain point in history. His letter is not your average report to shareholders. It is a well written document that focuses on the state of the market, the price of stocks, and our future.

During the tech boom, Buffett said he did not buy companies that he did not understand and he stayed away. He thought the market was overheated. People frowned. Then the tech boom fell apart and he looked brilliant. Now, with the Dow off 50% from its October, 2007 high, and Citigroup close to nationalized with the US government's 36% stake in the company, it is up to the avuncular Mr. Buffett to cheer us up, and chart a path that makes sense for his shareholders and America.

A notorious value investor, Buffett has been trying to lead by example, purchasing beaten down companies like General Electric and Goldman Sachs. He has substantial holdings in American Express and Wells Fargo. About half of Berkshire's revenues come from insurance while a good deal comes from housing related investments.

You may not agree with the Oracle of Omaha, but you had better know what he is saying and doing. Because the markets just might be trading on Buffett come Monday morning. One more thing: I have always found it curious that the cherry Coke swigging guy who failed to understand tech became best friends with Microsoft founder Bill Gates. Buffett must never, ever be underestimated.