Green Shoots: It's the Demography, Stupid!

by Diane Wilson

It is springtime. My lilacs are in bloom, as are the daffodils, tulips and the cherry blossoms. The air is moist and suffused with the fragrance of a thousand buds and blooms, all pregnant with the promise of summer. Languish no more indoors. You have suffered a harsh winter and now there is payment for that suffering.

Truthfully there's nothing better than green shoots, except that the mere phrase has us heading for the hills. It was Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke who famously used the term in his 60 Minutes Interview, when he wanted to calm the markets and the country, as noted in The New York Times. This green shoots discussion has not abated. Now it's a global issue, as described once again in The Times. Anyone brave enough to google green shoots will find a bumper crop: Green Shoots Remarks Defended, Keeping a Close Eye on Those Green Shoots, or The shoots of recovery look pale green at best.

I liked the term the first time round. Now I am beginning to think it more to do with demographics than economics. Could it be the world -- especially the developed world -- is just aging, and Mr. Bernanke wants to relate to us? According to the 2006 Canadian Census, the median age was 39.5. At that time, it was observed that the median age was expected to keep rising and could exceed 44 years by 2031. And older people tend to have a greater appreciation for gardening, as noted by JPM Morgan with its age-related basket of stocks in Seeking Alpha. It was not an accident that Scotts Miracle-Gro made the list. And that's probably why we keep seeing these commercials on television for upside down vegetable gardens that look plenty weird.

So this green shoots thing is really a case of knowing your audience and relating. Okay, you lost a bundle in your retirement plan and your job might be on the line. That's winter stuff. Don't worry, there are beautiful green shoots emerging.

And that alone is telling because it speaks to the next hurdles our economy will face after the Great Recession has come and gone: our mature workforce and spiralling health care costs. Bernanke's a smart guy. I suspect he is dealing with the problems at hand and thinking ahead. No doubt, he is anticipating the issues associated with people who get altogether too worked up about by green shoots. He is starting to confront the issues associated with an older America.