December 31, 2009

It's a Wonderful Life and You

The Huffington Post brings us a wonderful montage of film and news about banking. Simplistic, but thought provoking. And of course, it makes us question those bank bonuses again!

December 13, 2009

Sarah Palin's Magic

by Diane Wilson

Sarah Palin isn't going away.

Never far from the public spotlight, Palin was in the news this past week over Copenhagan and climate change. The Huffington News reports on an exchange between talk radio's Laura Ingraham and Palin, in which Palin says she is not sure whether she wishes to debate Al Gore on the issue of climate change. Nothing to do with competence. According to Palin, "it depends on what the venue would be, what the forum....if it would be some kind of conventional, traditional debate with his friends setting it up or being the commentators I'll get clobbered because, you know, they don't want to listen to the facts."

Okay, that's clear -- she's right, he's wrong. Very reassuring to know that Sarah Palin alone has the correct information and that the rest of the world is making an issue out of climate change when it is not.

Ingraham kept asking Palin about debating Al Gore, perhaps in a proper debate format. Palin's response: "I don't know, I don't know. Oh, he wouldn't want to lower himself, I think, to, you know, my level to debate little old Sarah Palin from Wasilla."

To my mind, this interview is quintessential Palin -- never mind, she doesn't know what she is talking about, just knock the other guy out. Ever the point guard, Palin still runs offense to deliver the message. And, it's always about her and how right she is and how victimized she is. This is personality politics at its best.

My politics and Palin's have nothing in common, and yet I enjoy her, which really disturbs me. Why? Sarah Palin is moderately bright. Not well educated. Good looking. Conservative. Every bone in my body thinks she is incapable of holding any reasonable office in the United States.

However, Palin is not going anywhere soon, because she is open, bright eyed, engaging and fun. Palin is very friendly. And while she talks about and does weird stuff (moose chili, snow machines, the infamous turkey slaughter), she is enthusiastic. Palin takes us to a place we would like to be, where few problems exist, and perhaps she even believes her simplistic narrative. I also think she's got a bit of Teflon in her because she rebounds nicely from skirmishes, unfazed.

Sarah Palin makes the Republican Right Wing more reasonable in a crazy way, and certainly more palatable, which is very spooky. This is clearly the secret to Sarah Palin's success, and the reason she has a good crack at being the Republican Presidential Nominee in 2012. And that means people -- all people -- better start paying attention to Palin, like her or not.

December 9, 2009

Trouble at the Bank

Dear Mumsie,

Rather unfortunate news today. Apparently, the Chancellor of the Exchequer has seen seen fit to rob Muffin and Todd of their very special Christmas this year ( according to The Telegraph). Last year had been such a tough slog, had it not, and now that the bank was just getting back on track, I was expecting a rather sizeable down payment on life, shall we say. The lake season had finished and I had such a fine holiday planned!

There is a little wrinkle in my plans, due to Mr. Darling's insistence on taxing my bonus before it leaves the bank. This will affect all bonses of more than £25,000 and it will be applied to all banks operating in the UK, including foreign banks. And, as you well know, I was to get considerably more than that 25,000!

I calm myself with the knowledge that I am far from alone. In fact, this new one time tax will affect about 20,000 people, poor sods. All this in a shabby effort to play to the voters who insist bankers are paid too much. (The public has never been quite right since the British government provided more than £1 trillion pounds to prop up the banks during last year's credit crisis, has it?)

Well, the chit chat around the water cooler was really fine today. One American fellow, who thought he had died and gone to heaven when he was hired in London two years ago, was on the telephone today making arrangements for a transfer to Wisconsin.

As for me, I know I must be chin up and know that bonuses can be deferred and so forth, but still I dread the moment when I must confront our toddlers and try to explain that they will not be going on the private jet to the private villa this year. Perhaps worst of all, they will not have the opportunity to see all of their friends! And that is why Mr. Darling has me so ticked off. It is simply unfair to little children!

Your loving son,

Roger

October 4, 2009

Turkey: Quite Possibly the Most Important Piece of Real Estate in the World

by Diane Wilson

In the last weeks of summer, we scooted off to Turkey, and were dazzled by the old and the new, the sobriety and the splash, the generosity of the people we met, and the unavoidable, disquieting but hopeful fact of Turkey's geography.

Turkey finds its home in both Europe and Asia. It borders Bulgaria and Greece. It also borders Azerbaijan, Armenia and Georgia. But Turkey's longest borders are shared with Iraq, Syria and Iran. While driving through Istanbul, our guide pointed out the Iranian Consulate and noted that they have had a peaceful relationship with Iran for 300 years.

Home to a mostly Muslim population, Turkey is a secular democratic country established by Mustafa Kemal Ataturk in 1923, following the demise of the Ottoman Empire. The Turkish Armed Forces are the second largest standing force in NATO, and Turkey was a founding member of the United Nations. More recently, Turkey had applied for membership to the EU, and I had thought negotiations were still ongoing. When I was there, the question of membership made people bristle: "We have been rejected by the EU. The subject is now closed."

To a Westerner, the Turkey I saw feels foreign, but in a dreamy romantic sort of way. It was Ramadan and there were calls to prayer from the Blue Mosque. At nightfall, restaurant owners would put their chairs out on the street for locals, who had been observing Ramadam, but activity continued during the day. A constant stream of boats went up and down the Bosphorus. I was most struck by the graciousness of the people I met in Istanbul: "You will come back?" we were asked time and again. When we answered in the affirmative, there was satisfaction: "So you like Turkey."


I do like Turkey, but the more I saw, the less I understood it, having just scampered around Istanbul and Ephesus. What would I find elsewhere in the country? How welcome are Westerners? Come to think of it, how well does Turkey really understand the West. Even in Istanbul, which is chock a block with Four Seasons Hotels, how well do they really know us?

Turkey knows that we are suckers for clothing and handbags with names on them. Genuine Prada and Polo knock-offs are found throughout the Grand Bazaar, along with their other up-market cousins. However, The Grand Bazaar is just for the tourists, we were told. The Turkish people shop elsewhere.

I had made a reservation for dinner atop an older hotel. The selling point was its view of two continents. I was so looking forward to the excitement of seeing both Europe and Asia while dining, but our guide nixed my plan because it was in the wrong neighbourhood. Instead, he sent us to a very opulent four star affair on the Bosphorous. But my original choice still haunts me because I want to know what I missed, even if it wasn't grand luxe. Quite possibly that venue was more authentic. If the West is going to advance its relationship with Turkey, we have to understand it better, rather than having it fashioned for our consumption.

Turkey was once perhaps the most powerful empire. At the height of its power in the 16th to 17th centuries, Turkey or the Ottoman Empire comprised three continents, including much of northern Africa, western Asia and southeastern Europe.

Turkey remains a stunningly beautiful country, whose excellent climate makes it self-sustaining. But today's Turkey must grapple with double digit unemployment and staggering interest rates, realities that were largely absent during our quixotic adventures. This past September, a report entitled Turkey in Europe: Breaking the Vicious Cycle was issued. It is a call to re-engage, and mentions the resentment we noticed on the streets of Istanbul. It also talks about Turkey's key strategic location, due to oil, the Middle East, and so much more.

If the world really does subscribe to location, location, location, then Turkey ought to be the go-to country in the years ahead. With that comes the hope that religious and political divides can be bridged, and a new sharing of knowledge can occur.

October 2, 2009

Rio Fallout -- Let's Think North American

I have never thought of myself as a person who obsesses about the Olympics, but Rio's win today was thrilling. It was interesting to see the four films on the bid cities -- Chicago, Tokyo, Madrid and Rio de Janeiro. Chicago's promo film failed to send a strong message about a forward thinking environment. Tokyo's was sort of predictable, but more majestic. Madrid was trying too hard. And then there was Rio. All the IOC had to do was take a look at five seconds of this film and say, "Okay, that's it. We're going to hit this place in 2016. That's where the beauty and the passion lie." Clearly, what happens in Rio won't stay in Rio -- the party will be a grand international affair.

Now, as happy as I am for Rio -- and I am! -- I see us all drifting while the newer world gathers momentum. Aside from gorgeous beaches and mountains, Rio has shown us how wonderful it is to be shiny and new. Brazil has been amazingly successful over the past number of years, even swallowing iconic Inco for a cool $17 billion three years ago.

It is time to reinvent ourselves. How about starting to call all of us -- Mexican, American and Canadian -- North American? How about rethinking and repositioning the brand? I think North American could far outsell American at the moment. North America speaks of unity and diversity and newness. If we are going to proceed and outsell, we are going to have to be the go-to people for ideas. We will require some grandeur and some greatness, nothing tired or broken.

America has too many skeletons -- both old (slavery) and new (Iraq) -- in its closet. Canada is too small to make the difference it should be making, because Canada is a truly extraordinary nation. Mexico would add history and culture, and Mexico could really use the re branding as well. If we could ever sort out the cross border trade squabbles (Buy America) and the passport issues and the clogged borders, we could have enormous advantages having an EU type entity called North America. Republicans like Senator Corker who alledge that Canada has a parasitic relationship with America will need to be convinced, as will TV anchor Lou Dobbs.

Chicago's loss and Rio's win together point to a need for a fresh new entity -- North America just might help.

August 22, 2009

Where in the world is Janet Napolitano? And how Canada is suffering from new US border laws

by Diane Wilson

Canada better start beefing up its relationships with Europe and Asia because our biggest trading partner is making it increasingly hard to play ball. The Americans are rightfully concerned with their rising unemployment. The Americans are rightfully concerned with 9/11 and its repercussions. But their concerns have been amplified by a national anger designed to keep outsiders out and Americans in. That kind of thinking is leading to border havoc -- long and costly delays at crossings -- and a steep decline for Canadian business.

The Globe and Mail reports that the new passport rule, enacted June 1, is keeping Americans out of our great country. In fact, according to Statistics Canada, travel to Canada from the United States in June has sunk to its lowest number since the agency started tracking cross border travel in 1972. Last year, Americans accounted for about 70 per cent of Canada's $75-billion tourism industry. The problem is this: only 30% of the American citizenry have passports.

The largest undefended border is now so defended that it saddens the heart. Drones fly south of Saskatchewan. If you happen to be drinking a Tim Horton's coffee as you cross the border into the US, you best declare it as a food item. Forget cheerful memories conjured up by Queenston/Lewiston or Buffalo/Fort Erie. The lovely flow of people and goods has come to a halt, as if Queenston/Lewiston is about to be returned to its 1812 standing.

This is not good news for wee little Canada or the hermetically sealed United States of America. However, Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano, the former Governor of Arizona, has said repeatedly that the northern border must be brought in line with the southern Mexican border. According to The Economist, Napolitano told reporters she wanted to “change the culture” along the 8,900km border. So she wants a real border despite the $1.8 billion worth of daily trade crossing the border. Napolitano talks heat-detecting sensors, surveillance drones and cameras along the the St. Clair River.

Buy American. Erect a big wall on both borders. Treat 'em the same and show 'em there's a new sheriff in town. Big. Tough. And oh so out of of touch with the reality that is 2009. Rather than partnering with Canada to encourage trade and tourism, the US has decided to go it alone and has essentially isolated itself, hoping that money just keeps pouring in from China et al. But we have only to look at other countries and unions, such as the EU, which are designed to foster a free flow of goods and people from countries with different languages and customs. What they share is a strong belief in progress.

Earlier, I was hopeful that Janet Napolitano might change her thinking about our border, but this issue seems to be much bigger than Ms. Napolitano. She merely echoes a chorus from the culture of Lou Dobbs. It is a sad inward looking United States whose people don't get out much. Then again, when only 30% of the population own a passport, you aren't going anywhere!

July 24, 2009

Yes He Can! Obama and Health Care

by Diane Wilson

This week President Obama stood before the American people and made his case for health care. As The Economist reports, reforming health care is perhaps the biggest challenge facing the President. Whether it is or it isn't, this is something that needs doing, as close to 50 million Americans are currently uninsured -- this in a land that is called the wealthiest nation on earth.

In this can-do country that others only seek to emulate, exorbitant health insurance premiums cripple the middle class, and insurance is routinely denied to people with pre-existing conditions. Careers are planned around health benefits. Contract workers lose their jobs, their homes and their health insurance. President Obama pointed out, "If we do not act, 14,000 Americans will continue to lose their health insurance every single day.”

There is one single question that most disturbs opponents of the Obama plan: Who will pay for it? In this what's in it for me moment, the government would be hard pressed to proceed with any initiative that betters life for the citizens. Transportation. Public Buildings. The whole purpose of government is to provide services and protect the public good.

Perhaps the issue has been framed so wrong for so long that people just see red at the mention of public health care. It is possible that people just cannot grasp that we are not talking about some vague issue but rather the health of of their fellow countrymen. America depends on its productivity. That said, productivity and health run hand in hand.

President Obama has said that his health care plan will not add to the deficit and that two-thirds of the program could be paid for by trimming the fat on existing programs. But it is the taxation component that has people riled. It will fall on those most able pay -- the wealthiest -- to shoulder the burden of health care through taxes. This horrific information is offset by the fact that Obama is eager to drive costs down. Given that burgeoning American health care costs are not sustainable, Obama's desire to trim costs should appeal to everybody.

Obama's health care plan will not be popular. His opponents will continue to run ads depicting shoddy medical treatment in Canada. The fear factor will not work because Obama currently has people on his side. He needs to grab the legislators and make health care happen now, or he will miss the opportunity to keep American people -- all American people -- well.

July 23, 2009

Toronto: A City in Peril

Garbage and Pandemic Planning

by Diane Wilson

Toronto's month long civic workers strike that has crippled garbage collection has its tentacles in more services than you know. It even affects pandemic planning. In today's The Toronto Star, renowned microbiologist Allison McGeer warns that Toronto may suffer more H1N1 deaths because of the civic workers' strike. I will say that again: Toronto may suffer more H1N1 deaths because of the civic workers strike. McGeer is head of infection control at Mount Sinai Hospital and a noted authority on pandemic planning. She was also the voice of reason during the SARS outbreak.

Apparently, there are about 1,800 unionized employees from the Toronto Public Health Unit on strike. These individuals were supposed to be spending the summer planning for the second wave of the H1N1 virus, which is scheduled to hit North America in September. During the summer, pandemic management advice should have been going out to institutions and plans for vaccination clinics should have been made.

McGeer's comments are in line with the thinking of the World Health Organization, which has declared a level 6 pandemic -- news that should not have been taken lightly. We are told to wash our hands and all that to prevent the spread of germs. But wouldn't our city be cleaner if we took away these towering hills of aging garbage? I worry about the spread of disease through vermin when you have so much uncollected garbage sitting for weeks on end in our neighbourhoods.

Okay, health's not your thing. How about a sagging economy? When the world is sputtering in a global recession and travel dollars are being squeezed like never before, isn't it a crying shame that Toronto has turned off the lights? The ferries to the island are on strike, leaving places like Centreville closed. Public pools are closed. Builders have been unable to collect building permits and have had to lay off employees. Day camps are closed.

Toronto is a city of contradictions. Torontonians are paying five cents a bag at all stores. The idea was that we would use our cloth sacks to bring home the goods and then we would compost and recycle. We are a noble lot of foolish people! We go to all this trouble and expense and now the strike has us throwing all our waste -- compost and not -- into monstrously large green plastic garbage bags, which are tossed next to our neighbours to rot for weeks on end.

Few of us fully understand the reasons these city workers went out on strike, although I bet some of the reasons are very good. Unfortunately, nothing can top the urgency and importance of a global pandemic and a global recession. We have precious few days to get down to serious planning and confront a future in which sick days will be so consumed that prized sick banks will vanish. This strike has run its course. It is time for the mayor and the premier to lead.

June 26, 2009

Smart: The 2009 Word that Defines Obama's Call to Action

by Diane Wilson

Earlier this year, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton called for the use of smart power, which she said included "the full range of tools at our disposal -- diplomatic, economic, military, political, legal, and cultural... With smart power, diplomacy will be the vanguard of foreign policy," as recorded by ABC News. Not surprisingly, foreign affairs is framed this way.

According to China View, Obama has "displayed his advocacy of the so-called 'smart diplomacy' ever since he took office in January. He has extended an olive branch to Cuba and Venezuela in Latin America, and softened tones on Iran and Syria."

Then there's smart grid investment, which is about to soar as a result of the stimus package. Intelligent grid technologies are projected to top $70 billion by 2013.

President Obama has ushered in a new tone of smart responsiblity, knowledge and language, and it is having an effect. Rapper Jim Jones told The Daily Beast that Obama inspired him to clean up the language of his music. Gone is the word "nigga." The word is now replaced with Obama, as in "Yo, did you see them Obamas last night?”or “Now that’s a real Obama.”

Talk about smart power. From rappers to corporate titans. Look at IBM's latest ads that ask us to buy into smart power Apparently, "smart work is transforming our organizations to take advantage of the capabilities of a smarter planet."

Smart is clearly the word that best defines our response to the urgent needs of 2009 and it is a more than gentle reminder of the dearth of smartness in the preceding eight. The Times reminds of a time when life was much less smart in a recitation of President Bush's top 20 gaffes. While it's nice to finally go in the right direction -- smart, that is -- Bush warms the heart with his downright nuttiness. Then we remember Iraq and all that is ugly about dumb politics, and we thank our lucky stars for the smart, new White House.

June 25, 2009

Another Republican Hopeful Bites the Dust: AWOL Sanford Confesses

by Diane Wilson

The Republicans always wade knee deep in talk of God and family values at their Convention. Nobody knows more about this type of thing than South Carolina Governor Mark Sanford, who went missing for seven days to visit his mistress, as reported in The Huffington Post. Sanford heads the Republican Governors Association and was said to have been a presidential candidate for 2012.

While he was initially rumoured to have gone hiking, Sanford secretly flew to Argentina for a visit with his honey, and then came home and had a lot of explaining and apologizing to do to his wife and four sons and the country. In a fascinating press conference, Sanford danced around, talking about his love of the Appalachians and his need for faith. He spoke of his wonderful family, none of whom were in attendance. (Mrs. Spitzer showed up for Eliot's mea culpa.)

Sanford is resigning as head of the Governors Association. But Sanford's role these past few months has been particularly noteworthy in his refusal to accept recovery funds for his state, according to the The Washington Times. President Obama actually brought a lovely young girl from South Carolina to the State of the Union to help sell educational funding, but Sanford wanted to use the money to pay down debt.

It was a minor miracle when Sanford joined the other 49 governors in taking federal money to create or save about 3.5 million jobs. But at least we now know why this guy's thinking was so messed up. He had been good to great friends with the lady in Argentina for eight years and then it got romantic, and his wife got wind of it five months ago -- roughly the time frame of the Obama presidency. This guy had other stuff on his mind, and it sure wasn't education.

June 18, 2009

The Painful Death of Paper Newpapers and Plastic Garbage Bags

by Diane Wilson

This month, Ontario stores started charging five cents per shopping bag, which sounds like no big deal. The shopping bag brouhaha has been happening at the same time as financially challenged newspapers are being faced into oblivion or into cyberspace. Back in March The New York Times showed the sorry faces of the folks at The Seattle Post-Intelligencer, which has become an Internet-only news source -- the largest American newspaper to do so. The paper version was completely ditched.

Don't get me wrong -- I don't want plastic bags in rivers and streams. No! And I am hardly afraid of the Internet. I love The Huffington Post and other online sources. But, the physical read of a good newspaper is different from surfing -- it is reading.

But why couldn't they use recyclable paper that won't be going to newspapers for store bags? As it currently stands, you see foolish looking consumers leaving shops arms full of naked groceries: Mr. Clean, meat, lettuce and a chocolate cake. One shopkeeper tells me that shoplifting is on the rise. We have all purchased the necessary linen sacks to carry our loads, but they will get dirty, and I do not find them ergonomically friendly. And then, if you want to line your compost bin with a plastic bag, you now have to fork out a few dollars for a bunch of plastic bags. That is downright nuts.

Clearly, we are going to have to think longer and harder about what we take away from our way of living and the implications. First, in a time challenged world, we are spending too much of it on weird garbage related matters. And second, newspapers have always been a way of life, a culture. We always knew that if they were good for nothing else, they were good for wrapping food and waste. And so we have come to a new point in time. Should you wish to wrap a piece of fish, simply stick it between the keyboard and the screen and close the laptop.

June 2, 2009

The Day the Music Died: Musings on GM and America

by Diane Wilson

Many years ago, I listened incessantly to a song called American Pie, and the words stick in my mind, "Drove my chevy to the levee, But the levee was dry. And them good old boys were drinkin' whiskey and rye, Singin, this'll be the day that I die, this'll be the day that I die." Yesterday, June 1, 2009, I felt the music really did die as GM went under, as contained in The Huffington Post.

Alright, let's consider American Pie another way: "Drove my Corolla to the levee, But the levee was dry." Or, if we really want to go 2009, "Drove my Prius to the wind turbine, but the blades were rubbing, while top math and science students were drinking lattes, saying I need more credentials." Where's the magic?

I still think the fates of GM and America are intertwined. A quick look at the history of the Dow components provides a fascinating glimpse of the movement of the economy from America to points beyond. Who today has even heard of Dow components American Beet Sugar and American Can and American Car and Foundry and American Locomotive? Today, a good investment manager will weigh AT & T(T) and China Mobile (CHL) and decide the latter has greater prospects for growth. Similarly, as the world tilts towards Asia, Chinese carmakers are aggressively eyeing Hummer and all of the other American leftovers, savouring the tasty treats, according to The Financial Times. Make a note of a company called Geely -- it is looking at Volvo, according to reports.

Clearly the American management of the big carmakers did a terrible job for many years and abandoned defense. While they were up to I don't know what, Toyota and Honda and others scored goal after goal on an open net. Then the housing and credit crises hit and the music really did die. Exit Chrysler. Exit GM. But not until most of the American banks had been rearranged in one way or another. Lehman Brothers -- you do remember that investment bank? How about Bear Stearns? We could go on.

So, now we have Obama in net, which cynics could laugh at, given that his knowledge of the game ranks lower than bowling. However, I think Obama has put in a floor for American industry and said, "Enough. These are our businesses and we are not letting them go. Even if the government must own them, we are keeping them alive."

Which means it might be cooler in the future to drive your Chevy to the place where they make solar panels, and pick up arugula on the way home. You will not want to miss how President Obama puts the economy and businesses back together again. This is fascinating stuff, worthy only of someone with a mind like an Obama or a Geithner. And, I believe this Administration would dearly love to put the word America back into the many companies it now oversees.

May 13, 2009

Miss California: Check this out!

Apparently, the oldest depiction of a woman has been described today by archaeologists in southwestern Germany, according to The Globe and Mail. The little figurine, which was carved from the tusk of a mammoth 35,000 years ago, is X-rated and lacks a head.

According to archaeologists from the University of Tubingen, the figure is quite sexually explicit. The dishy little figurine joins an important group of finds from southern Germany, including mammoths, horses, cave lions and two creatures that are half-man, half-animal.

Barack Obama: Déjà vu or New and Improved

by Diane Wilson

A country spots a young, telegenic leader who campaigns on the concept of a just society and the spirit of change. He has been influenced by John Kenneth Galbraith and is a deep believer in Keynesian economics. Always the outsider, he developed his unique world view as a student at Harvard. He was an associate professor of law, whose views tilted towards a liberal position in favour of the rights of an individual.

He captivates actors and statesmen alike. His campaign wins the hearts and minds of the media and mobilizes youth, who see him as a symbol of change. He is quickly labelled a socialist, while his own personal motto is "Reason before passion." Some praise him for his keen intellect, while others simply bash him for arrogance, economic mismanagement and favouring the authority of the federal government. (Wikipedia.) He leads his country through a rough period in history, and is often the centre of attention.

His name is Pierre Elliott Trudeau, and he was Prime Minister of Canada from 1968 to 1984, save for a few unfortunate months.

Good Diversions: More Heroes

Former FDIC Chairman Bill Seidman who died Wednesday in Albuquerque, N.M. at the age of 88, reports The Huffington Post. The affable Seidman held a Harvard LLB and an MBA from Michigan, and served in the US Navy during World War II. While Chair of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation under the first President Bush, Seidman headed up The Resolution Trust Corp (RTC), which efficiently cleaned up the Savings and Loan mess. Recently, due to his success with the RTC, Seidman became the go-to guy to discuss the current banking debacle. Seidman was always straight forward and calming in his assessments. In no particular order, he was also Managing Partner of BDO Seidman, biked to work because he liked to be around young people, consulted with many corporations, wrote, and was a regular on CNBC. A prince of a guy!


Pilot Pilot C.B. "Sully" Sullenberger who not only decided to ditch his bird-burdened plane in the Hudson River, but actually succeeded in doing so, without harming anybody or even losing his cool!

Jennifer Figge, a 56-year-old American woman who dreams big, swam across the Atlantic Ocean, a 4,000 km. journey from the Cape Verde Islands off west Africa to Trinidad, a 24 day trek that had her swimming in a shark cage and finishing unafraid.

May 12, 2009

GM and GE: The importance of staying relevant

by Diane Wilson

Poor, poor, poor GM, which as of Tuesday had a market cap of $690-million, making it the littlest company in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, according to The Globe and Mail. I am mixing apples and oranges but you'll get the point when I tell you that Canada's own George Weston announced sales of $34 billion and earnings of nearly one billion and yet, many people could not tell you what that company does. Weston has a market cap in excess of $8 billion.

It would appear that GM may be turning out the lights now that its executives have been busy dumping their stock in the company, sending shares to $1.09, a level last seen in 1933. This is the company whose products your parents really, really wanted. This is the company, that save for a short stint, has occupied a prestigious spot in the Dow. How many people dreamt of Cadillacs and Camaros and Firebirds? Lots. This was definitely the top car maker, as anybody who grew up on Pontiac Parisiennes while aspiring to Sedan deVilles will tell you. The moment -- the very moment -- that a person had achieved the latter meant that he had arrived. (This was more of a he thing than a she thing, back then.) It was not a debt ridden moment but a signature event in the life of an individual because Cadillac was the very hallmark of wealth and success.

So the Dow is going to soldier on in all likelihood without GM. General Electric will now be the lone link to the past because GE is the only original component of the Dow, dating its inclusion to 1896. It will be interesting to see where the Average meanders over the next few years by way of components. It was exciting when Intel and Microsoft were added because it indicated tech was more than a passing fad. Perhaps the Dow will go for a biotech next?

The Dow provides a nice reading of America and progress. It is at once a graveyard for companies that fail to adapt and a prism through which to analyze corporate success.I am going to toast Thomas Edison's General Electric, and congratulate Jeff Immelt for keeping his company relevant 119 years later, as he has built up infrastructure and wind energy and medical technology and water treatment, and tossed out the old. As Immelt and others were redefining their companies, what the heck was going through the minds of execs at GM? I would really love to know.

May 8, 2009

Intrigue at 6 AM: And why do you want Canadian dollars?

And while we were all just enjoying our gardens, holy smokes, some investors may have had the inside scoop on Canada's Friday jobs numbers. According to The Globe and Mail, Canada is making sure that leaked data did not help currency speculators in advance of the surprisingly good numbers. The Canadian dollar was up .7 per cent between 6 a.m. and 7 a.m. ET for no apparent reason, well in advance of the report.

The rumour that has people concerned concerns a large London based hedge fund that made a substantial purchase of Canadian dollars nearly an hour before the Statscan release. Brokers are questioning a leak, but also acknowledging that the Canadian dollar was thinly traded at the time. Some are questioning whether it was the Finance Minister's office that leaked the numbers. Frankly, it was such an odd report that it doesn't seem to matter all that much, and the Canadian dollar was due to rise. But Statscan had better make sure that nobody, but nobody is talking ahead of the news. There are a lot of eyes on Canada and many sophisticated investors like Dennis Gartman are betting on this country. We do not want to look silly.

Green Shoots: It's the Demography, Stupid!

by Diane Wilson

It is springtime. My lilacs are in bloom, as are the daffodils, tulips and the cherry blossoms. The air is moist and suffused with the fragrance of a thousand buds and blooms, all pregnant with the promise of summer. Languish no more indoors. You have suffered a harsh winter and now there is payment for that suffering.

Truthfully there's nothing better than green shoots, except that the mere phrase has us heading for the hills. It was Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke who famously used the term in his 60 Minutes Interview, when he wanted to calm the markets and the country, as noted in The New York Times. This green shoots discussion has not abated. Now it's a global issue, as described once again in The Times. Anyone brave enough to google green shoots will find a bumper crop: Green Shoots Remarks Defended, Keeping a Close Eye on Those Green Shoots, or The shoots of recovery look pale green at best.

I liked the term the first time round. Now I am beginning to think it more to do with demographics than economics. Could it be the world -- especially the developed world -- is just aging, and Mr. Bernanke wants to relate to us? According to the 2006 Canadian Census, the median age was 39.5. At that time, it was observed that the median age was expected to keep rising and could exceed 44 years by 2031. And older people tend to have a greater appreciation for gardening, as noted by JPM Morgan with its age-related basket of stocks in Seeking Alpha. It was not an accident that Scotts Miracle-Gro made the list. And that's probably why we keep seeing these commercials on television for upside down vegetable gardens that look plenty weird.

So this green shoots thing is really a case of knowing your audience and relating. Okay, you lost a bundle in your retirement plan and your job might be on the line. That's winter stuff. Don't worry, there are beautiful green shoots emerging.

And that alone is telling because it speaks to the next hurdles our economy will face after the Great Recession has come and gone: our mature workforce and spiralling health care costs. Bernanke's a smart guy. I suspect he is dealing with the problems at hand and thinking ahead. No doubt, he is anticipating the issues associated with people who get altogether too worked up about by green shoots. He is starting to confront the issues associated with an older America.

April 9, 2009

Stephen Goodwrench: Imagining the PMO in the car business

News that the federal government will be guaranteeing new cars brings auto repairs and warrantees to a whole new level. According to The Globe and Mail, the feds wisely want to protect consumers and parts suppliers in light of the potential bankruptcies of GM and Chrysler.

Industry Minister Tony Clement said Ottawa will stand behind the warranties of new cars sold between this week and the the conclusion of their restructuring efforts. How will it work? In the event of difficulties with engines and the like, perhaps troubled car owners will simply dial the office of the PMO.

Customer: "Hey, I just purchased a minivan. There's this really loud whistling sound in my engine, haven't a clue what it is, can you help me out?"

PMO:"Sure thing! Let's start with Tony -- see if he can shed some light."

Tony (Clement): "Yeah, whistling....That can be dicey. Hold on, I'm gonna get the head mechanic. Steve? Whistling in the engine. What do you think?"

Steve (Harper): "If I knew what that is, I would not be Prime Minister of Canada. My wife would be in this role, which she is not. Tell the customer not to assume that there is a problem with the car. Minivans usually perform very well, and we can rest assured that -- "

Customer hangs up.

New Customer: "Do you guys really stand behind the cars?"

PMO:"We certainly do. We have budgeted that way."

New Customer: "But it could cost taxpayers $185 million!"

PMO: "Hold on to that thought. I'm gonna get one of our top mechanics. Hey Jim, Line 4."

Jim (Flaherty): "If the caller is questioning whether or not the Government of Canada is standing behind the new vehicles, especially in light of the many other stimulative actions of the Department of Finance as articulated in the recent budget update, especially the home renovation tax credit, I can unequivocally state that we are in all respects supporting the guarantee of new cars sold as of this week. You will note that when Canada attended the G20, Canada emerged as a leader, and we will continue to lead -- "

Customer hangs up.

Good news for the taxpayer. If we had to speak to Steve, Tony and Jim to service our cars and check on our warranties, we just might not stay on the line. Net cost: Zero!

March 26, 2009

The Canada-US Border: Why Janet and Hillary Need to do Lunch

by Diane Wilson

I hope that Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has lunch with Homeland Security Secretary Janet Naplitano and points out that the 49th parallel in no way resembles the Mexican border. In fact, Canada and the U.S. share the largest undefended border in the world, measuring 3,145 miles. The two countries do enormous trade. So much so, that according to a 2003 study commissioned by the Canadian Embassy, Canada–U.S. trade supported 5.2 million U.S. jobs.

Actually, perhaps Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner should join them for dessert because the Canada-US border will serve as a crucial part of the economic recovery. An efficient border affects retail, commodities, manufacturing and tourism. It matters to just in time delivery and it matters to a truly integrated economy. It matters to rolled steel and fresh fruit, to autos and plasma TVs.

Napolitano wants a tough border with passports, and says we are going to have accept this "culture of change," according to The Globe and Mail. The culture shift actually dates back to 9/11. But citizens of both countries living near the border -- in Buffalo, Niagara Falls and Windsor -- know that we must have an efficient seamless border. Not a porous border, but an efficient border.

There have been contentious issues between Canada and the U.S. Think softwood lumber. But by and large, we have had one heck of a good relationship ever since the War of 1812. So it is sad to hear tourist industry officials predicting fewer cross-border trips when the passport rule hits June 1, because 75% of Americans are without passports. And manufacturers are making contingency plans for alternative suppliers and warehouses, in the event of delays in shipping.

Ms. Napolitano is more familiar with the U.S.-Mexico border, having lived in New Mexico and Arizona, and she has voiced concerns that the two borders should be treated equally. There are issues with Canada's immigration policies, the way we screen people and goods, etc.

I can't help but think of Europe and its easy flow of people within the EU countries. Why can't the US and Canada have a similar flow of people and goods?

Canada will proceed with its new Windsor-Detroit bridge, where one quarter of all Canada-U.S. trade flows, but it is time to build other bridges as well. Canada needs to work with Secretaries Clinton and Napolitano to create the type of border that best suits favoured nations depending on one another for just about everything. No fences, nothing too scary. How about sensible American and Canadian rules and regulations that promote trade and travel, while saving 5.2 million US jobs!

March 25, 2009

Stung: The Phantom and the Beekeeper

It may have been Livent co-founder Garth Drabinsky's big day -- the man who created North America's largest live theatre company with hits like Show Boat, Ragtime and The Phantom of the Opera has been found guilty of fraud and forgery -- but news comes from an Australian court about a very serious conviction.

We learn of Donald Alcock, a financially troubled man who murdered a highly respected beekeeper in order to get his hands on $40,000 worth of honey. According to The Globe and Mail, Alcock has been convicted of murder and will now spend 15 years in prison, hopefully wondering why he ever embarked on such a crime.

Alcock shot the esteemed beekeeper, Anthony Ross Knight, in the back as he slept and loaded the haul of honey onto his truck so he could sell it to a honey distributor. While unloading the sweet stuff, Alcock was pinned under an enormous vat and was rushed to hospital.

In court, with all of Knight's colleagues in attendance, the unfortunate Alcock pleaded not guilty, explaining that he assumed the bullet would go straight through Knight's body without killing him.

March 20, 2009

Yet Another Fish Story

As concern mounts about the depletion of fish stocks around the world, British researchers have come up with a new smart fish. While not edible, these seal-size fish are going to be kept busy.

According to The Globe and Mail, these robot fish will be dumped into the sea off of northern Spain in an effort to detect pollution. They will be equipped with sensors to monitor oxygen levels in the ocean, as well as identify oil slicks from ships and other nasty contaminants. If the project works, these carp-shaped robots could soon be sniffing out hazardous pollutants at a lake or river near you.

At $28,000 apiece, the fish operate without human help. They transmit their information back to shore via Wi-Fi technology, undoubtedly listening to their I-Pods while swimming about.

March 19, 2009

Yearning for Walter Cronkite: American Media Needs to Quiet Down

by Diane Wilson

I have watched CNN and CNBC and MSNBC and NBC, and I have come away thinking that Canadians really are different. CBC's Peter Mansbridge and company lack the frenetic sense of being. He is grounded. The interviews are longer, more news is covered, and people have the good sense not to all talk at once, yelling each other down. Come to think of it, Mansbridge and crew actually listen. Thank goodness.

CBC is much like our Canadian banks. Which many of us had knocked over the years, knowing they were just conservative cash machines for Bay Street. They never seemed to be the real deal, like say a Citigroup. They didn't have the right stuff to get into over their heads with exotic derivatives. They just stuck to their knitting. Who knew that the entire world would look to Canadian banks? Thank goodness.

Or, how about the decision to go to war? Prime Minister Chretien seemed to take forever to make up his mind over joining the US on Iraq. He wanted to study the issue. Meanwhile President Bush had laid out a solid case for invasion and the other allies were falling in line with the US. In the end, the PM said No, and Canada was not the most popular country in the Bush White House. Thank goodness.

I say this not out of malice for the U.S. but affection. America has always been Canada's neighbour and good friend. But the tone south of the border is worrying. Americans are more bellicose than ever. Look at CNBC's Jim Cramer and Rick Santelli, and their rants. It is also pretty weird that the finest American broadcast journalism is coming from a comedian, John Stewart.

It's enough of broadcasters stating that Obama has declared war on investors. It's enough of the hyperbole. Hope lurks in one little corner of MSNBC, with a show run by the very erudite Rachel Maddow. She refuses to have guests bicker and she spends longer on interviews. Come to think of it, I would like to see her do an interview asking why American TVsters are so busy yelling and what can be done about the matter. Are the anchors and the guests just reflecting the mood of the country or is it something more?

Because, deal with the issue, they must. Years from now, patients with hearing deficits are going to be asked a simple question: Were you around heavy machinery and American news?

AIG Anger Explodes, French Protest and the South Pacific Erupts

by Diane Wilson

Well, perhaps cable TV can move on to another subject. The House, reacting to anger on the streets caused by bonuses paid to AIG executives, voted 328 to 93 to retrieve the bonuses by slapping a 90% tax on the money. The measure had widespread Republican support. According to The New York Times, the lawmakers were responding to their constituents' anger.

Meanwhile, trouble is afoot in France, reports The Globe and Mail, as more than one million angry workers take to the streets demanding President Nicolas Sarkozy open new talks to tackle the deepening economic crisis. As the French economy contracted at the fastest pace in 30 years, workers from the biggest companies in the country were marching in Paris, Marseilles and Lyon.

And on and on, with mounting unemployment and anger the world over. So it is with a great deal of interest that we read in The Huffington Post that there is an underwater volcano that has been erupting for days, heaving smoke and steam high into the sky. Apparently, this volcano is not having a negative impact on the islanders of Tongatapu or fish and wildlife. However, the beaches of nearby Fiji, will be covered with pumice from the erupting volcano.

Long story short: It is better to give than receive. Paris is not always better in the springtime. And last, that Beatles song no longer makes sense when it enthuses, "I'd like to be under the sea...."

March 4, 2009

Build Canadian! No Beggar Thy Neighbour We

by Diane Wilson

Howard Dean did it for me. Last night in an interview with Rachel Maddow on MSNBC Former DNC Leader Dean praised President Obama's proposed health care reform, saying it will be "a saviour for America. Maybe our automobile companies will finally be competitive with Canada's again."

Mr. Dean, Canada does not have any car companies. We have foreign car companies -- yours among them -- and they are not shy about going cap in hand to our federal and provincial governments. Recently, Chrysler and GM asked for C$10 billion in government aid, in a restructuring plan that will cut GM's workforce to from 20,000 in 2005 to a measly 7,000 in 2010, as noted on the CBC.

Dean spoke only hours after Pittsburgh-based US steel announced its plans to lay off 1,500 workers in Canada. According to The Globe and Mail, this will be the first time that the storied Stelco plant has been shut down. And these cuts follow a host of cuts by other foreign owners like Rio Tinto Alcan (1000)and Vale Inco (423). News late today confirms that Chrysler is eliminating the third shift at its Windsor, Ont. assembly plant, slashing 1,200 minivan workers.

In view of the cuts to Canadian workers, it is time to build Canadian. I would like Research in Motion creator Jim Balsillie to have lunch with Magna's Frank Stronach. I think these guys could dream up a fantastic new Canadian car before their entrees arrive on the table. They could buy Chrysler or GM -- both are cheap and come with loads of government help -- or pick up one of the shuttered plants in Windsor. We already have the aforementioned health care in place. We have great brainpower from places like Waterloo. Why can't Canada build a car that has the same Wow factor as the Blackbery? Maybe the Trackberry Hybrid. It can't come soon enough.

March 2, 2009

The Little Depression: An Ailing Economy Defies Description

by Diane Wilson

We don't know if we're in a depression, because nobody actually agrees on what a depression is, says The Globe and Mail. Ambiguity has come to characterize the 21st century.

Recent wars are fought not against countries with clearly delineated borders, but against amorphous groups lurking in mountains and caves. Similarly, the economic enemy is hard to pin down.

Clearly, the US and Canada are in recession, but what about depression? According to Professor Peter Morici of the University of Maryland, the US is likely in a depression right now. A depression is defined in many ways -- it can be a downturn of three years with a 10% drop in economic output and unemployment above 10%, or a sustained recession during which people actually hock their assets to make ends meet.

Since the States is only 15 months into this mess and unemployment is not yet 8% and output is only down 6.2%, the Depression parameters don't work. During the Great Depression, a quarter of the economy evaporated by 1933 and a quarter of the workforce lost employment. But, last year's stock market was the worst since 1931. And, this just does not feel like other recessions. Bring in Prof. Morici's other definition of a depression -- a recession that "does not self-correct" because of structural problems like bank credit and trade deficits. Which makes me think of how Uncle Sam has come to the rescue of banks, autos and insurers.

We are getting weary, and we need certainty. What if we assume the worst and call it The Little Depression, a limited recession characterized by structural problems? This way, we know where we are at. During this downturn, people will learn to save and eat at home. Stocks will get cheaper, but not that much cheaper. Companies will shore up their balance sheets, and exploit good opportunities. Baby boomers will learn how and why to buy bonds. But it will end, and as we exit this period, de-levered personal and corporate finances should stand us in good stead.

Perhaps the best news about The Little Depression could be that we do everything much faster now. I know I could be wrong about all of this, but I am beginning to think it will not take as many years to fix the mess. We just need to get out of the way, give President Obama and his team a chance to work their magic, and be patient. And then, boy oh boy, watch the sidelined money return from money market funds and treasuries.

March 1, 2009

Why Some Letters of the Alphabet are Better than Others

Economics, Anger and Politics

by Diane Wilson

Nouriel Roubini, aka Dr. Doom, writes in the New York Times about how the US might proceed through this dreadful recession. He notes that it skipped the usual V and is in the 15th month of a U-shaped recession that will unquestionably be the longest since the Great Depression.

US GDP will not grow more than a muted 1% in 2010, while unemployment will rise to around 10%. What's more, even if the Government throws all necessary stimulative actions at the problem, Roubini does not see growth rising to 2% until 2011, meaning the recession could stick around for three years. That's the good news.

If the collective we do not put policies in place, the U-shaped recession could morph into an L-shaped near-depression or stag-deflation, much like the Japanese experienced in the 1990s.

That will give a lot of angry people more time time to get even angrier. Recently, CNBC's Rick Santelli, an otherwise affable man who reports on bonds, created an on-air diatribe against Obama's mortgage relief program. This vitriol cannot be ignored. The GOP has spent the entire week declaring the Democrats Socialists, while some of their more rational members, like Governor Schwarzenegger, wait eagerly for the postman to deliver the Stimulus money.

Frank Rich notes in his column in The New York Times "the genuine populist rage in the country — aimed at greedy C.E.O.’s, not at the busted homeowners mocked as “losers” by Santelli — cannot be ignored or finessed."

We are probably reaching the end of people's ability to absorb weird letters -- V-shaped, U-shaped and L-shaped recessions -- and frightfully large numbers. Most of us just cannot wrap our minds around $350 billion TARP here, $787 billion stimulus there and a $1.3 trillion deficit.

What to do. Fortunately, economists of all stripes are on board with the President. It is now up to the Democrats to put out a very large welcome mat for the Republicans and allow them to talk -- not yell -- about their differing ideas. There has got to be some consensus on some issues. Start with small initiatives, and gently get everybody going in the same direction, maybe by giving credit and even ownership to Republicans for some of their ideas. Also, it would be helpful to have leadership from the Republicans who are currently working with the President. The current anger is counter-productive. And at times, downright scary.

February 28, 2009

An Open Letter to President Obama: You Really Do Need Health Care Reform

Dear Mr. President,

By your own admission, you have arrived at this day of reckoning. In saying this, and budgeting for a newly expanded set of goals and priorities as reported in The Huffington Post, you are confronting some of the most difficult issues, ever. According to Politico, you are now ready to begin work with Kansas Governor Katherine Sebelius heading up Health and Human Services. As one of your northern neighbours, I want you to know that you are doing the right thing by advancing health care reform in the United States.

In 2004, the Canadian Broadcasting Corporation ran a series about the greatest Canadian. The list included hockey great Wayne Gretzky, telephone inventor Alexander Graham Bell, and insulin discover Frederick Banting and two great Canadian prime ministers. Who did the public pick? Tommy Douglas (www.cbc.ca/greatest/) the man who introduced universal public health care to Canada, while Premier of Saskatchewan.

I suspect the debates that lie ahead regarding universal health care will make the Stimulus bill appear like child's play. But debate you must. It is wrong to leave 47 million Americans without health care, without the ability to be healthy, without the ability to be well, without the ability to fully contribute to your society.

My American friends want you to get going on universal health care. I believe you have already heard from my St. Louis friend, who believes the economic recovery will be faster if there is a health care plan. The current system equates good jobs with good health care, and that has proved a burden for too many companies. My friend from Virginia, who has lived in Canada for awhile, had a very serious stroke last fall and was hospitalized for 14 weeks. During that period, I asked her if she was angry. She told me that on the contrary, she is so appreciative of the Canadian health care system. She says she could not have afforded the stroke in the U.S.

Mr. President, I do not wish to mislead you and your country. Our system is far from perfect -- we have a shortage of doctors, long wait times, our nurses are overworked. However, we never think for a minute about cost or insurance coverage when anybody falls ill, or goes to the doctor. Medical costs are covered by taxes.

I believe that you and the House will examine many options, and there will be great argument. I hope that the Canadian government studies your various proposals and learns how to adapt and perfect our system in ways large and small. And I advise everybody to keep track of the people leading the charge for American health care reform. Because, like Tommy Douglas, one day they too could be known as your country's greatest Americans!

Good luck,

Diane Wilson

The Dow is Cooked for Now

Considering GE slashed its dividend 68% Friday, and Citigroup shares now trade for less than a 12 ounce can of Spam, you would have expected the Dow to fall more than 119 points yesterday. However, The Dow Jones Industrial Average -- the 30 companies that reflect the US economy -- has too many companies on deathwatch. Citigroup, the bank that the US government basically nationalized yesterday, currently has a market cap of US$8 billion. GM sports a cap of US$1.37 billion -- roughly three times Oprah's salary -- and trades at $2.25. By comparison, the Royal Bank of Canada has a market cap of US $32.5 billion, while the BCE takeover that never happened was priced at $51 billion.

Look for a redo of the Dow components later this year. In the meantime, the S & P will provide a better gauge of the market. And investors who used Dogs of the Dow Strategy -- the clever theory that suggests buying the ten Dow stocks whose dividends provide the highest yield -- might want to wait and see. Last year's Dog picks included Citigroup, Pfizer, GM, JP Morgan Chase and General Electric, among others --companies that are either staving off bankruptcy or shoring up balance sheets, while slashing dividends.

February 27, 2009

How to Spot a Depression at 30,000 Feet

Throw out the economics books! Get rid of all the metrics! Forget what you've heard over the years about the Dirty Thirties and dustbowls and all that. This is 2009, and times are tough. How tough? Tough enough that Ryanair is considering charging passengers to use the loo. According to a report in The Globe and Mail , Ryanair boss Michael O'Leary thinks people should pay one British pound for a trip to the washroom, thus creating a new revenue stream. So many questions and concerns come to mind -- what of the passenger who boards without adequate change?

Now for the good news: this low-fare carrier tends to make short haul flights and they are known for very efficient landings!

Coffee with the Oracle: What lies ahead

by Diane Wilson

On Saturday morning, skip the gym, grab your coffee and settle down at the computer at 8 AM EST to read Warren Buffett's annual letter to shareholders. The letter, which forms part of Berkshire Hathawy's annual report, can be found at www.berkshirehathaway.com. Buffett has been knocked in recent months because Berkshire stock is down severely -- BRK.B shares now trade at $2,408, down drastically from their 52 week high of $4,700, while the A shares go for a measly $75,799, almost half of their 52 week high of $147,000.

Given that Berkshire is heavily exposed to insurance and other ills that plague the market, the stock price is understandable. It is important to know what Mr. Buffett believes of the future and how we arrived at this uncertain point in history. His letter is not your average report to shareholders. It is a well written document that focuses on the state of the market, the price of stocks, and our future.

During the tech boom, Buffett said he did not buy companies that he did not understand and he stayed away. He thought the market was overheated. People frowned. Then the tech boom fell apart and he looked brilliant. Now, with the Dow off 50% from its October, 2007 high, and Citigroup close to nationalized with the US government's 36% stake in the company, it is up to the avuncular Mr. Buffett to cheer us up, and chart a path that makes sense for his shareholders and America.

A notorious value investor, Buffett has been trying to lead by example, purchasing beaten down companies like General Electric and Goldman Sachs. He has substantial holdings in American Express and Wells Fargo. About half of Berkshire's revenues come from insurance while a good deal comes from housing related investments.

You may not agree with the Oracle of Omaha, but you had better know what he is saying and doing. Because the markets just might be trading on Buffett come Monday morning. One more thing: I have always found it curious that the cherry Coke swigging guy who failed to understand tech became best friends with Microsoft founder Bill Gates. Buffett must never, ever be underestimated.

February 13, 2009

Yeah, I lost my job too: Global Woe

More than 600 job seekers showed up at a Toronto job fair this week, as the ranks of the recently unemployed have begun swelling. According to the The Star job seekers waited in line to meet job counsellors and employers at the fair, held by JVS Toronto. JVS -- a non-profit dedicated to employment -- has been operating for 61 years and has experience placing people during good and bad times.

Canadian employment had been holding up fairly well until recent months. Global job losses from the recession could top 50 million by year's end, The New York Times reports. The figures come from the International Labor Organization, a United Nations agency.

The International Monetary Fund anticipates that global economic growth will reach its lowest point since the Depression by late 2009. According to researchers quoted in the Times, growth has essentially stopped and developed economies are expected to shrink 2 per cent during this year.

The French employment minister noted that this is the worst that his country has seen since 1929. He said globalization makes the unemployment picture much different and more severe.

February 12, 2009

Space Pollution: Trouble in the Heavens

by Diane Wilson

For those of us who would prefer to forget Kyoto and global warming and the many forms of pollution that most people agree are problematic, we now have something else to keep us up at night -- space pollution.

According to the The New York Times , two communication satellites -- an operational American satellite and a Russian satellite -- collided 490 miles above northern Siberia. There is now concern that orbital debris could affect the International Space Station.

Weighing in at about 1,200 pounds -- the size of a fully grown cow, and measuring more than 12 feet long or the height of a mature elephant -- the American satellite was one of a group of 66 spacecraft.

According to Nicholas Johnson, chief scientist for orbital debris at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, it will take time to find out how much damage was done, and whether the debris could threaten the space station and its astronauts. He noted that the risk to the station is small, because you can dodge the large objects whipping through the universe. Apparently, it's the smaller objects that you cannot see -- think industrial pollution here on earth -- that can cause the most damage.

Which brings us to our risk for more of this in space, given our penchant for communication devices. For that matter, were I to understand physics, would it be possible to track all of the waves and rays and other stuff emitted by all of the machines we now engage? I remember being told years ago not to stand to close to my microwave. I stand three feet away, and then go near it as it beeps the friendly message: "Enjoy your meal." There are all the conflicting stories about mobile phone use and the brain. And now collosal pollution in the heavens. We have created such a superb technological society that my microwave is about to change its message: "Last laugh's on you."

February 11, 2009

Baseball Banking and Madoff

by Diane Wilson

As the top American bankers testified in Washington today, one could only sit in disbelief at the sad spectacle. The heads of the once great banks -- and these were really good banks -- had to explain and apologize, and beg. Washington is beginning to ring out the excesses as it comes to terms with the new realities but it will take awhile to sort out a culture that had coveted excess.

America's national game, baseball, has been having a rough week. The New York Daily News reports that former Blue Jay Roberto Alomar got hit with a heavy duty lawsuit. This follows the flap created by Alex Rodriguez's interview with ESPN, in which he admitted to using banned substances while playing with the Texas Rangers back in 2001 - 2003. Rodriguez told the network that he wanted to prove that he was worth the money.

Then there is the slow steady drip from the Bernie Madoff case. If reports are true, he is the player who has really hit it out of the park, having claimed thousands of victims in his alleged $50 billion Ponzi scheme. Madoff doomed the rich and the retired, but it is his devastating reach into philanthropy and pension funds that boggles the mind. According to the New York Times, this case extends to the New Orleans City Employees Retirement System and locals of the Plumbers & Steamfitters union, among others. Everybody had counted on Mr. Madoff to keep their money safe.

Bankers, baseball players and fund managers. We sit with an issue of trust, a need to sort the good from the bad, and to get back to some sort of normal. So, we have a stimulus bill passed in the US and we have one here at home, but we need more. We need values. No more shock and awe economics. No more swinging for the fences. No more. I want to know which of the banks are still reliable because I'm still foolish enough to believe that they are not all bad guys. I just do not think that. Same with the managers and players. It is the scoundrels that are dominating. Time to get them out of the way, change the culture and move on.




February 8, 2009

Time for Work: Now!

by Diane Wilson

According to January's horrible Canadian unemployment numbers released Friday, we now have a national unemployment rate of 7.2%, up significantly from December's 6.6%. Youth unemployment rang in at at a staggering 12.7%, and men over 25 clocked 6.7%. Unemployment among women fared much better at 5.4%.

The US jobs report for January showed unemployment rising to 598,000, or 7.6%. While some jobs were added in health care and in government, every other sector shed jobs. All of which means, the unemployment rate is well into the double digits for people without a high school diploma. Male unemployment now sits at 7.6% while female unemployment is 6.2%.

This trend is not our friend. I picture women across America feeling guilty now that they have retained their jobs, as well as their housework, and I envision swelling numbers of Nintendo playing disaffected men -- and their fathers -- standing in line to flip burgers. There is only so much Grand Theft Auto and Mario that these guys can play before they start asking how their futures evaporated. Why do women have all the jobs? What happened?

The American heartland tells me that the deadening economy could unleash anger on the streets. Which is why the stimulus package is needed now. This business about tax cuts makes no sense. Young people will not benefit from a tax cut. Unemployed people need job opportunities. We need big government spending, the kind we would normally rail against. We must retain all precarious positions and create new jobs for those disaffected people who believe the rest of the world has stopped caring about them. It is a time to show compassion and interest in your fellow man. If we act, we will create the opportunity for millions of people to start contributing and rebuilding society.

Time to stop with the party politics. Time for everybody to get to work, getting work for workers. Something along the lines of hope and change.

January 29, 2009

Just Maybe: Good may come from this

All of the economic malaise -- nice way to put a recession/depression -- and all of the sordid stuff that accompanies bad times might lead to better stuff. That's what I am hoping. You might have noted that DoSomething.org is the talk of Davos this year, along with PhilanthroCapitalism. People are trying to figure out how to use the crisis in capitalism along with the needs of philanthropy. Excellent idea.

Perhaps people will go beyond their own personal reach and really work to establish a better community. We have not seen that kind of thinking on a wide scale in decades. People liked Obama's message during the campaign. They loved the messages of hope and change. Regardless of country,we now turn to neighbourhoods and cities and we start figuring out how many things need doing.

Challenges have come along before, and people have often united to make things better. We are coming out of a vacuous period in which people saw their own personal wealth rocket, only to watch the same wealth evaporate. Time to shift gears, and build something real. Help the community. Eradicate poverty. We talk about this great country of ours -- let's all make it as great as it can be. And then, just maybe, we will really be wealthy!

January 27, 2009

When is Enough Enough??

I don't know about you, but everywhere I go people are concerned and downright confused about the proposed stimulus packages here and south of the border. We need something, something big. But then, hey, I don't want to pay for all that stuff, especially paying for stuff to beautify the nation's capital. And then, what about TARP? What about TARP? Sounds like it could end up as a Trivial Pursuit question in years to come. Sad.

So people think something needs to be done. They want help in their own personal life. Cut taxes. Help with expenses. Help with credit. And if they have lost jobs, help getting employed.

There is one overwhelming concern: Exactly how much is enough? That said, Treasury in the U.S. and Finance in Canada are hearing from all sides on how they are failing to do enough, and that they are meddling way too much.

Perhaps people are just a wee bit fatigued at this point, and starting to get cranky. South of the border we had one long primary season that under normal circumstances would have led to an inaugural high and levity for a good hundred days. We could just enjoy the Obamas and their style. Canadians feel the same way, having been totally invested in the US election. We just want to enjoy the culmination of a fascinating race. We have Barack. We have Hillary. And, we no longer have Bush. Yes, this was our hour to sit and enjoy.

But the economy has spiralled down. Yesterday looked downright spooky in the US when more than 50,000 people lost their jobs. Canadians have had a look at the American economy and thanks, but we just hope Canada doesn't go there.

Which brings me to the central question: how much stimulus should be given. I haven't a clue, but I do think everybody else is trying very, very hard to get it right. That at least merits a thank you.

Canadian Budget: Friend or Foe

Say Goodbye to the Surplus Years

All it took was a look at the potential Coalition Government waiting in the wings and the Tory Government were away to the races, drafting a new Budget designed to erase all thoughts about the nasty Economic Update that threw the Commons into an uproar. Prorogued members of parliament have returned, Flaherty is on his feet, and the Budget has been announced.

Question: Will Canadians be heading to the polls over this Budget? Is it a good budget? And given our demographics and lousy economic fortune, how long will it take before we see a surplus again? Paul Martin isn't the happiest guy to hear that all of his hard work has gone up in smoke -- you can hardly blame the former finance minister. On the other hand, and it is a big on the other hand, the economy needs a hand. Canada is currently relatively strong and we want it to remain that way.


Interesting to note how stocks rallied ahead of the Budget.